We've created some handy graphics (one for each division) to visualize where JB and TK thought each team would end up, and alongside them, the actual 2018 record. JB's preseason predictions are in green, TK's in purple (Go Ravens!), and the real deal in black. Also, please note the four teams with ties are graphed as finishing with an extra half-win. That's Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Green Bay
In conclusion: the National Football Conference
TK: Boy, did I whiff on Dallas! It feels like a cop-out to say that I just don't really like them too much so I gave the wins to their opponents. But looking back at the schedule and where I put the losses, I stand by them. Jacksonville, New Orleans, and sweeping Philly: turn those wins into losses and Dallas sits at 6-10.
JB: I don't feel bad about my predictions. The only one I didn't see coming was the Giants. I figured with OBJ back, and Barkley in the backfield they would be able to cobble together an 8-8 record. Turns out they're worse than I thought. The time has come for replacing Eli Manning. I don't think they made a mistake in drafting Barkley (best value at that point in the draft), but they have to live with the fact that there aren't any blue chip QB's in the 2019 draft class.
TK: If they wriggle their way out of this mess in a timely fashion, then job well done to Gettleman and Co.! I'm expecting them to be bottom feeders until the mid-2020s at least! The good news for the G-Men though is that none of these other franchises look stable long-term. Will Wentz get healthy/return to form? Is Dak Prescott good? Will Washington EVER find a quarterback? I like Philadelphia's chances the best as Wentz has looked truly talented and probably needed more time than he took to fully recover. Pederson and Schwartz also make a really good pairing in my opinion.
JB: I'm willing to give Wentz the benefit of the doubt. The injury that is keeping him out of this years playoff run is different from the ACL/MCL that kept him out last year. I firmly believe that Wentz should have been held out longer this year. I understand that the Eagles were off to a rough start, and Wentz helped correct for that initially, but he wasn't in peak form. Another off-season under his belt will put him right where he needs to be.
TK: I hope so, I don't really care for any of the others in the NFC East, and that's me being very civil. Washington is in an interesting spot. They were doing ok with Adrian Peterson, Alex Smith, and a solid defense. I'm excited to see Derrius Guice next year. Curious what they'll do with AP, perhaps let them share the backfield for a season as Guice warms to the league and settles in from the ACL injury (that required 4 total surgeries, due to an infection). Also think Washington needs to look hard at moving Head Strength and Conditioning Coach Chad Englehart back to a second-fiddle role to combat the overwhelmingly high number of season-ending injuries.
JB: Everything you just said...everything...yes.
JB: Hindsight is 20/20, but looking at it now we probably should have seen the writing on the wall in Green Bay. Mike McCarthy was on thin ice after last year, and the rumor mill started spinning out the McCarthy vs Rodgers stories shortly after Rodgers went down with a knee injury. Rodgers was able to play through it, saving all of us from having to watch DeShone Kizer, but he was not "right" and everyone noticed. By the time he was healthy enough to play without the brace Green Bay was in a hole they couldn't climb out of.
TK: I will not accept that it was obvious heading into the season. That being said, I can't name why the Packers weren't actually good with all the talent they have. I should have been cooler on Detroit though. I was riding high off my 2017 Preseason Eagles pick and looking to make another splash to land a job with ESPN. Should have gone with Chicago, I guess! Is Chicago's season sustainable? The last few dominant defenses we've seen carry mediocre offenses haven't lasted multiple seasons (2017 Jaguars and Vikings, 2015 Jets). I just hope DC Fangio doesn't leave to take a head coaching gig.
JB: Football Outsiders tells me that Turnovers aren't something that can be predicted year over year. The Bears actually have fewer Turnovers this year (36) than last year (43). There is a good mix of youthful energy and veteran leadership in the Defense. I think they'll be around for a long time. I'm not sure about the offense. I like what Matt Nagy has been doing, but Trubisky looks erratic. I'm not sure I'd want to count on him to carry my team.
TK: I'm glad you and the boys at FO have eased my mind on the defensive performance, they appear to be doing it the right way, not smoke and mirrors (looking at you Jacksonville!). I agree Trubisky does look the picture of an incomplete picture. Over here in this corner you've got the beautiful beginnings of a work fit for the Louvre. But over in this other corner you've got something on my fridge that my five-year-old niece gave me (Thanks, Mia!).
JB: I had high hopes for Patricia in Detroit this year. Obviously things didn't pan out. Are my rose-colored glasses still on? Should Patricia be one and done? The stories coming out of Detroit about his casual relationship with time set off alarms in my head. I had thought that in order to be successful as a Head Coach you needed to be detail oriented. Blowing off some meetings and showing up 90+ minutes late to others does not inspire confidence. Also, the Defense, which is what Patricia is known for, didn't seem improved this year compared to last. What do you think TK? One more year?
TK: Patricia keeps disappointing me, from the sexual assault, to the verbal accosting of a reporter, and now the lackadaisical approach to promptness. I probably should just move on, I like Detroit and a lot of pieces on their roster though. When you dig into the defensive numbers, Detroit in 2017 was 27th in Yards per Game allowed vs. 10th in 2018 (355.8 to 335). They showed improvement on a league-wide scale in terms of Pass Yards Allowed and Run Yards Allowed, finishing 8th and 10th respectively. The offense took a nose-dive that finished in a belly flop in 2018, scoring only 324 points (25th) as opposed to 410 (7th) a year ago. Another year with Patricia and Pasqualoni to build their defense (and hopefully be done paying and waiting for Ansah) should make the defense look good. We'll see where their new OC takes them.
TK: The NFC South was one of our stronger divisions, maybe more so for me than you. Tampa and New Orleans pretty much spot on. I pegged Carolina for what they were too, though I'm surprised after the start they had and the groove they looked to be in after 8. The wheels came completely off though. Not many teams lose seven in a row and finish the season 1-7 by virtue of a punted week 17 divisional match-up, but Carolina did!
JB: Quick shout-out to Atlanta, for once again taking a stacked offensive team, and fail to finish over .500. I thought Sarkisian would be able to generate points, and they did (414 Points For). The problem was on the other side of the ball where DC Marquand Manuel struggled to get opposing offenses off the field and out of the end zone (423 pts against).
TK: So Atlanta's decision to fire Manuel and let Dan Quinn call defensive plays makes sense, but I don't get the dismissal of Sarkisian. Unless DQ and Dimitroff just don't like him? Can't wait to see where this one goes! Tampa Bay, we both felt, was legitimately a 4-win team. And they were, except for when they caught New Orleans by surprise on Opening Weekend. I'd love to see them overtake Carolina and Atlanta, but I don't see it happening with Winston.
JB: I don't think it was a good decision to fire Sarkisian. I think that was more of a shot across the bow to Dan Quinn. That being said, whoever the new OC is will need to put up points. I don't think the change at DC and Quinn calling plays is going to get it done. Carolina performed better than I thought they would, but still completely collapsed. Now that Marv "Verminator" Lewis is out in Cincy, Riverboat Ron Rivera becomes my new "Head Coach who should be fired."
TK: All signs point to Norv Turner actually miraculously fixing Cam Newton. His 2018 completion percentage finished at 67.9, toppling his previous high from 2013 of 61.7. He fought through a bum shoulder too, so you could envision a healthy Cam actually getting Carolina back to the playoffs. Get this man a wide receiver! They'll also need to find some defensive help this summer. I forgot to get to my original point though: could Hurney and Tepper opt to move Turner into the HC role?
JB: All of this and we don't mention the Division champs? The Saints are rolling down hill, and the road to Super Bowl LIII runs through the Super Dome. Drew Brees had an MVP-type year, even if he doesn't get it. It seems like we've said this before, if the Defense can keep up their end of the bargain the Offense can carry this team to a championship.
JB: The NFC West went pretty much as we predicted. Garoppolo going out in week 3 with the ACL injury derailed the 49ers. The bad news for the rest of the league is that a roster that already has talent will be adding to it in the draft. Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard didn't do horribly, but I don't think anyone will mind seeing Garoppolo getting back on the field.
TK: Correct. San Francisco looks to be in a good position heading into 2019. The second pick might be worthy of a trade down to pull in even more. This could be a fun division next year. I can't believe the Seahawks made noise again. Why do the teams I hate always have to torture me? If they are good again next year ... *shakes fist at sky*
JB: Bad news for you and the rest of the NFC West. The Seahawks did what they did this year with a young team that will only get better. Barring injury they'll improve over the next 2-3 years. The upside for the rest of the division is that Russell Wilson is starting to show some wear and tear. He's clearly lost a step. Not quick enough to evade the pass rush all the time anymore. The good news for Seattle is that he's developed a good eye for reading defenses. He tends to hold the ball too long, but that has more to do with a combination of good coverage/poor pass protection than anything else.
TK: Yeah, sigh... yeah. Arizona! Five wins turned out to be pretty generous. I went in thinking Bradford still had something left [Narrator: He did not.]. I also wasn't paying attention to the offensive coordinator Wilks hired. An offensive line revamp is required, and it's not going to be pretty for Rosen for another season in all likelihood. Arizona should return their rookie center Mason Cole and THAT'S IT! There's a lot of work to be done here, but if Bidwill and Keim hire the right staff (not likely) there is a foundation build on.
JB: Well... They hired Kliff Kingsbury. The same Kingsbury that had just accepted a job as OC of USC. The same Kingsbury that didn't do well enough at Texas Tech to keep his HC job there. The same Kingsbury that Baker Mayfield ran away from after his Freshman year at Tech. Better than Wilks? Yes, but name for me please the offensive-minded college coach who came into the league and had success. I can not. There's a ton of work to be done on both sides of the ball from a roster standpoint. I don't have faith that Keim can get it done.
TK: Hammer, meet head of nail. Case closed. The Rams look great again. Neither of us saw the losses at Chicago and vs. Philadelphia, but boy did we nail that Saints game! The defense was not as dominant as I thought it would be, finishing 20th in points allowed. And that's with 6 games against Arizona, San Francisco, and Seattle! Sean McVay's offense is a well-oiled machine, the Rams finished only 3 games with fewer than 30 points. Kansas City had 4, New Orleans had 5. Yeesh.
If only JB was this good at picking games. NFC North was hard to judge this year, eh?
ReplyDeleteDisappointing year from the NFC North. Including watching the Divisional Champs whiff against the Eagles.
Delete